Retrospective Assessment of Risk to Natural Hazards
نویسندگان
چکیده
The existing disaster databases allow analyzing losses produced by previous events and assessing the risk to natural hazard in a similar way as the insurance industry does for vehicles, health, etc., if the conditions and trends are maintained. Among the existing disaster databases, we selected DesInventar whose vast majority of records correspond to “small” events; this selection is of special interest as these small events are often ignored because, individually, they only stroke a few assets accounting for low economic losses. Nevertheless, their accumulated effect can have a significant impact over the economic and fiscal sustainability of urban areas, regions or countries. Also, considering the difficulties involved in assessing risk for those small disasters, like the lack of general models and the elevated susceptibility to local variables of the results, this approach can give answers so far unavailable. The methodology herein proposed has been applied to the assessment of risk (in the terms of the loss exceedance curve) in 23 countries.
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